1. The Export Valve: WTI-Brent Spread
Diagnostic: Gulf Coast light crude export capacity. An inversion to > $0 indicates Cushing backing up.
Latest WTI Print: --
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2. Systemic Failure: ULSD Crack Spread
Diagnostic: Civilizational Maintenance Engine. Exponential rise means total failure of diesel output.
Current Margin: --
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3. The Litmus Test: Gas & LNG Divergence
Diagnostic: Permian shut-in triggers. Stable Hub + Spiking LNG = Cascade approaching.
4. Physical Precursor: Gulf Port Congestion
Diagnostic: Naphtha offloading capacity. Rising tanker queues predate paper market realization by 2-3 weeks.